ARK Invest's New Tesla Model Puts the Stock Near $4,400 a Share in 2031, Led by Robotaxi

ARK Invest, one of the best-known Tesla investors, published a new valuation model for Tesla on October 19, 2026 that sets an expected value of about $4,400 per share in 2031. Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire built the model from 32 inputs, and its bull case reaches about $5,000 per share while its bear case comes to about $3,300. The 2031 model replaces the 2029 model ARK published in 2024.

Robotaxi, Tesla's driverless ride-hailing service, carries most of that value. ARK's base case has about 8 million robotaxis deployed by 2031, and the model states, "ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as presented in our previous model published in 2024." Enterprise value is a company's market value plus its debt, minus its cash.

The Robotaxi share eases mainly because ARK expects Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot, to take off as a rental business called robot-as-a-service (RaaS). The model has external humanoid sales reaching about 1 million units and about $200 billion of RaaS revenue in 2031. ARK calls that estimate "much more conservative than Elon's guidance of 100 million to one billion Optimus units in 2031."

Tesla is already scaling the service the model leans on. Tesla started giving Robotaxi rides in Cybercab, its two-seat vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals, in Austin on September 3, 2026, and Tesla's Robotaxi account on X reported more than 300 Cybercabs serving Austin by October 10. Tesla's third-quarter update counted nearly 2 million cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles at September 30, 2026, after eightfold growth from the quarter before. In the same quarter Tesla reported $28.0 billion of revenue and built its 10 millionth vehicle.

In ARK's model, everything else Tesla does, Optimus rentals included, makes up the remaining fifth or so of the company's value in 2031.