Neuralink moves to high-volume, automated implant surgery
Elon Musk said on X that Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026.
The promises still on the clock.
27 predictions, not yet kept and not yet broken. Each with a deadline.
Neuralink Blindsight to restore limited sight to the blind
Elon Musk said Neuralink is aiming to restore limited sight to the completely blind, with the first human implantation of the Blindsight device targeted for as early as 2026.
Starship demonstrates full reusability
Elon Musk said that, absent major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability by catching both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage while delivering over 100 tons to a useful orbit.
Starship V3 carries 100-plus tons to low Earth orbit
Elon Musk said the Starship Version 3 vehicle is designed to deliver more than 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit in a reusable configuration, roughly triple the V2 hardware.
First uncrewed Starships launch toward Mars
Elon Musk said SpaceX would begin launching uncrewed Starships toward Mars during the late-2026 transfer window, though he later described hitting that window as roughly 50/50 amid a shift to prioritize a lunar landing.
Starship deploys terabit-class Starlink V3 satellites in 2026
SpaceX said the larger V3 Starlink satellites, deployed from Starship, will bring gigabit connectivity to users and add 60 terabits per second of downlink capacity per launch, beginning operational deployment in 2026.
Grok 5 to be AGI or indistinguishable from it
Elon Musk said Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI, and estimated the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI at 10% and rising. Grok 5 had not been released as of mid-2026.
MACROHARD, a purely AI software company
Elon Musk announced MACROHARD, a project to build a purely AI software company that simulates the functions of software firms like Microsoft, with a Digital Optimus user experience targeted within roughly six months.
Robotaxis widespread across the US by end of 2026
Elon Musk said Tesla's robotaxi service, already running in a few cities, will become very widespread across the United States by the end of 2026.
Unsupervised FSD in customer-owned cars in Q4 2026
Asked when fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving would reach personally owned Teslas, Elon Musk said on the earnings call that it would probably arrive in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Optimus reaches 1 million-unit annual production line
Elon Musk said Tesla will stand up a one million unit per year Optimus production line, with production beginning at Fremont in late July or August 2026 and ramping toward that capacity.
Cybercab volume production ramps exponentially by end of 2026
Elon Musk said Cybercab production, which began in 2026, will follow a stretched S-curve and ramp exponentially toward the end of the year, with a long-term target of about 2 million Cybercabs annually.
Next-gen Roadster unveil and demo in 2026
Elon Musk said the next-generation Tesla Roadster will be unveiled, with a live demo, at an event at Giga Texas, calling it a banger and next-level, after delays to incorporate the SpaceX package.
Tesla Semi ramps to volume at Nevada factory
Elon Musk said Tesla would begin volume production of the Semi at its Northern Nevada factory in 2026, with the dedicated plant designed to scale toward 50,000 units per year.
Megapack 3 and Megablock deliveries begin in H2 2026
Tesla committed that deliveries of its new Megapack 3 and Megablock grid-storage products will begin in the second half of 2026, with Megapack 3 built in Houston at a projected 50 GWh per year.
Starship HLS lands crew on the Moon for Artemis
SpaceX is contracted to provide the Starship Human Landing System to land NASA astronauts on the Moon, with the crewed landing tied to the Artemis program timeline and Elon Musk also pursuing a self-growing lunar city.
AI5 inference chip moves to volume production
Elon Musk said Tesla's AI5 inference chip would see small-batch production in 2026 with volume production projected for 2027.
Tesla market cap and operations milestones for the 2025 pay package
Under the shareholder-approved 2025 CEO pay plan, Tesla set forward targets including 20 million vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Optimus bots delivered, 1 million robotaxis in operation, and a market cap rising toward $8.5 trillion.
Self-sustaining city of one million on Mars by 2050
Elon Musk said SpaceX will build over 1,000 Starships and run about 20 years of launch campaigns to establish a self-sustaining Martian city of roughly one million people by around 2050.
Vegas Loop expands toward a 68-mile, 104-station network
The Boring Company is building out the Vegas Loop toward a long-term network of up to 104 stations and about 68 miles of tunnel carrying as many as 1,200 Tesla vehicles, with Elon Musk confirming active tunneling.
Vegas Loop airport service comes online
The Boring Company began Phase 1 testing of Vegas Loop service to Harry Reid International Airport, with the airport connection slated to enter service as the tunnel network expands.
Future Starlink direct-to-cell constellations add full voice and data
Elon Musk said that while the first direct-to-cell constellation offers limited bandwidth per beam, future constellations will be much more capable, expanding direct-to-device service toward full voice and data indistinguishable from 5G.
Colossus 2 scales toward 1 million-plus GPUs
Elon Musk said the Colossus 2 supercomputer for Grok, billed as the first gigawatt-scale training cluster, would expand to 1.5 GW and that SpaceXAI is on a roadmap toward 1 million GPUs and beyond.
Sleep or use your phone during an unsupervised FSD ride
Elon Musk posted on X that the massive value jump for Full Self-Driving comes when a customer can be on their phone or sleeping for the entire ride under unsupervised FSD.
Optimus could exceed $10 trillion in revenue and be 80% of Tesla
Elon Musk said the Optimus humanoid robot has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in long-term revenue and that roughly 80% of Tesla's future value would eventually come from Optimus.
Optimus scales to 10 million units per year at Giga Texas
Elon Musk said Tesla is building a second-generation Optimus production line at Gigafactory Texas with a long-term designed annual capacity of up to 10 million humanoid robots per year.
TERAFAB targets one terawatt of annual AI compute
Elon Musk launched TERAFAB, a chip fabrication venture among Tesla, SpaceX, and SpaceXAI, aiming for one terawatt of AI compute annually and scaling toward 1 million wafer starts per month on a 2nm process.
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This tracker lists only predictions that are still open as of mid-2026. Items already achieved or already missed are deliberately excluded. Each entry traces to an allowed primary source.
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