65 dated posts from @RyanTanaka, grouped by company and linked to the originals. These are Ryan's calls about Elon's companies — not Elon's own promises. Those live on the promises tracker.
I predict they will do both- charge a small, dynamic rate per mile and also have the more consistent upfront cash flow of the monthly subscription.
My prediction is that fewer and fewer people will own cars and instead just rideshare/ robotaxi everywhere. The economics or robotaxi should make that possible. If someone wants to operate their own fleet, they can. Having a higher monthly subscription price for FSD means Tesla can grab more initial upfront cash flow for the artificial driver/ laborer they've created. It's like a salary to the driver. On top of that, the driver can make commissions on every ride they deliver. And who owns the drivers? Tesla
My expectation is FSD will cost ~$399/ month. Keep in mind, the actual value of it can be >$3,999/ month.
This is like Optimus training in the physical world (why Optimus cameras will be very important). MACROHARD/ Digital Optimus will do the same thing automatically for digital work. The only things that are needed: 1. Inputs 2. Outputs MACROHARD/ Digital Optimus will grab your mouse clicks, keyboard strokes, and voice input. It will know when you stopped (got your desired output). Everything in between will get abstracted away by the AI superintelligence. Imo, MACROHARD/ Digital Optimus remain Elon's most underrated project atm.
I'm confident Tesla will advertise in this way on X. We are the media. The best ads are just content. Tesla doesn't have to make commercials. We can!
Tesla does not need to *sell* cars to make money from FSD. They just need to *produce* cars/ Optimi to make money from FSD. So, now that FSD has been solved, the only thing left to do is to be patient.
MACROHARD/ Digital Optimus, paired with Grok is like FSD, but for your computer screen. (Hence why Ashok Elluswamy, VP of AI Software at Tesla) is leading the project. Financially, this is Elon's most underrated initiative at the moment. In the future, the input will be user intention, likely voiced in English language + drawn/ shown with touches on a screen. The output will be whatever you want that's digital. With enough data and training, Grok can understand exactly what the user wants and Digital Optimus can deliver it to them in ~1/1,000,000th the time. MACROHARD/ Digital Optimus alone is the biggest reason I will continue to own SpaceX over the next 5 years or so.
If SpaceX merges with Tesla, it will probably be an all-stock transaction, but it's still TBD.
PSA: For anyone holding out-of-the-money $TSLA call options, I encourage you to consider this possibility: If SpaceX hypothetically offers to acquire Tesla at $575/ share, but you're holding Dec 2028 call options that have a strike of $700, those would plummet to near $0 overnight.
For the record, I continue to believe Tesla will merge with SpaceX. After all, I was the first to say this publicly with conviction. At the beginning, I thought it was 95% likely. Now, I think 85% likely. There are indeed challenges. I don't think they're insurmountable. I'm quite sure Elon wants them merged, but we ought to keep in mind that when he was asked: "Do you support a merger between xAI and Tesla?", Elon responded with one word: "No"
Energy will return to great growth, but the best chart is the profit chart. Even if revenue stays flatish, gross profit is gonna go bonkers
Yea, I think Tesla only needs approximately 1,000,000 cybercabs throughout the US to take a gigantic dent out of the rideshare market.
But I have Optimus 'only' contributing $68 billion of revenue in 2037. I think he's off by an order of magnitude on energy.
Optimus will be the largest subscription product ever created. Bigger than windows (400m) Netflix (300m) and Spotify (260m) — combined. @grok remind me of this in ten years @grok build a model that shows the path of a 1B subscriber product globally. Get Optimus
Starlink will be big, but I think Optimus will be the largest subscription product ever
Tesla (and SpaceX/ xAI?) will begin making their own chips!
Tesla has the best real-world AI. Tesla will build their own chips. Tesla has solved self-driving. Tesla will make drones (flying robots) and probably housing units equipped with HVAC, water purification, Starlink, Powerwall, and solar roof.
Optimus will be the biggest product the Earth (and Mars) has ever seen.
Now imagine similar, but with physical advancements. Think n8n or OpenClaw, but automating chores and physical labor. If you physically could be in 100 spots at once (you will be able to with Optimus), what would you get done every day?
That is exactly what I expect to happen- generate around $1,899/ month in Robotaxi revenue. $699/ month car payment, $599/ salary for the digital driver. Net $500ish/ month. I could certainly be off on the exact numbers, but this structure makes the most sense to me.
Fabs, materials, data centers.. They'll probably be buying back a lot of stock at some point. Dividends are normally super lame imo, but Tesla could be the exception if they really do unlock the infinite money printer
Subscriptions coming soon. Maybe just a base subscription to rent the bot (and if they really wanna juice up the money printer- which I don't think they will, nor want to), they could charge specific-use subscriptions. Want Optimus to manufacture stuff?
Now do you get it? The $99/ month that will likely increase to $599+/ month is like a salary for the digital driver. The driver is the best in the world by far, never gets distracted, sleepy, or drunk, and is ready to go 24/7. $599/ month + a per mile commission is nothing
I've been the main person saying Tesla will probably get rid of the one-time purchase and certainly print ridiculous cash from a monthly subscription that increases to at least $599/ month, if not $1,499+/ month.
As I've been stating for forever, Tesla Full Self-Driving is an artificial driver. Buying the driver once is a steal. Renting the driver monthly makes way more sense. The subscription will increase from $99/ month to eventually $599/ month and beyond!
I think the sticky, high-margin recurring revenue of the FSD subscription will absolutely balloon the profitability and therefore valuation of Tesla. After that, the same should occur with Optimus. Imagine how many "FSD" subscription equivalents there could be for Optimus! Actually, I take back my answer. I think it's just Tesla through and through. Optimus is just too valuable. It's the infinite money glitch. It replaces labor!
I think Tesla will be worth much more for the next decade+, then maybe SpaceX afterwards
There is soon going to be no such thing as FSD. It is Tesla Self-Driving, or as I like to call it: Tesla's digital driver or Tesla's chauffeur. Tesla has create an artificial digital driver replacement that can get pushed to nearly all vehicles in the global fleet. Bye FSD. Hello Tesla Digital Driver.
All this storage helps Tesla work as a distributed utility - the load on the grid becomes much much more stable- eventually making it feel as though there are no peaks or dips. Also, everyone will have backup power. When everywhere has backup power, the only other things they need are clean water (hint hint) and internet (Starlink).
In other words, if we think SpaceX is gonna 5x in the next 2.5 years, $150 is probably a great strike to own.
Prediction: SpaceXAI and Tesla will collaborate and successfully cure cancers.
I suspect SpaceXAI will work on mRNA factories in collaboration with Tesla
I think in the long-term, Tesla and SpaceX merge and the parent company is named SpaceX, not X. Though I expect the X name to remain for the everything app.
If/ when SpaceX merges with Tesla, I predict the parent company will be named "SpaceX." What do you think the merged company will be named?
SpaceX will have data centers in space. Starship will enable self-sustaining cities on the Moon, Mars, and other planets. SpaceX will build a moon base.
I think this could happen. Elon said SpaceX will be the first $100T company. I am not completely well versed with SpaceX, but I don't see how Tesla wouldn't get there first.
Tesla will take over Earth. SpaceX will take over Mars.
AI is eliminating the cumbersome steps between our desires and the final digital outputs. Eventually it will just be raw thoughts from our Neuralink piped directly to ultimate digital superintelligence
Neuralink's will be connected to so many things- Think Neuralink-to-Neuralink communication, or controlling Optimus performing surgery overseas or an Optimi robot army manufacturing more Optimi or a fleet of drones for warfare or a Tesla vehicle. The possibilities are endless.
I think Neuralink will be the default product of choice for almost everyone in the future, or at least anyone with more than 2 neurons!
I follow Neuralink closer than most people, so I see a clear path for them to reach tens of trillions in valuation. Just based on prior succeses, I assume Boring Company will get there and beyond as well. I think the latter 3x happens before former 67x.
I believe: Elon and Neuralink are going to *cure dementia, depression, and paralysis. Elon and xAI + Tesla are going to *cure cancer. How can you hate him?
There will be robots of many form factors. Neuralink will enable us to connect with them
Neuralink is currently building "artificial brains." I expect they will eventually build artificial brains.
Neuralink is profoundly helping paralyzed individuals and will eventually reduce pain and suffering from many brain disorders.
2026 will continue to be a great year for Neuralink
I have continued to underrate the potential of SpaceX. Neuralink is probably going to deeply help more than half the humans on Earth.
Without Neuralink, the folks who are brain dead are dead. An advanced Neuralink will actually bring them back to life. Tesla will save millions of lives. SpaceX is eventually a necessity. X clearly was/ is a necessity. I love them all, but I love Neuralink the most.
He keeps one-upping himself. I expect Neuralink could surpass Starlink. But maybe Twitter was more important than either. Crazy to consider.
In the longer term, Neuralink will minimize the effect of not properly articulating problems. Right now, we have to prompt models or robots, but with a Neuralink, the models/ robots will just act upon our raw thoughts directly. If you have an Optimus directly connected to a Neuralink, that is travelling on Mt. Everest or Mars, it's important for it to have sensors that provide adequate feedback. By having greater-than-human sensors, we can close the loop and essentially duplicate our physical presence- it'll be like cloning ourselves!
One thing I am certain of is that Grok Bot is going to give the team massive amounts of training data that will help accelerate MACROHARD development.
That gives me pause in saying Grok Bot is "definitely" digital Optimus. I think it is, but not definitely.
How about GROK!! Trajectory of improvement indicates it will be the best bet. Plus, Elon Musk.
Yes, MACROHARD = Digital Optimus. My guess is that Grok Build will be merged/ renamed Digital Optimus.
A few notes: - I was wrong: lung capacity will not be modifiable via gene-editing, according to Grok. Muscle growth will. - I now think this company is being created. A DNA modification of companies, if you will. - If Tesla merges with xAI/ SpaceX, they'll have all the tools to enable highly customizable, personalized medicine.
I used to think ~75% chance he would, but now I'm thinking closer to 25%. If Tesla merges with SpaceX, Tesla will have the manufacturing chops alongside the intelligence chops from xAI.
X and Tesla will have the most real world video with all the uploaded video + robots on four wheels and robots on two legs, right?
I've expected + wanted Elon to start a genetics company for years. I hadn't realized until last year that xAI is likely to be that company. Easy prediction: xAI (and DeepMind) will enable the cure for many cancers by designing synthetic mRNA. During the peak of the Covid pandemic, Tesla worked with CureVac to create portable RNA microfactories. Elon, xAI, Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and Boring Company are so undervalued.
xAI will have the best AI. Macrohard will be a viable replacement for all enterprise software and all SAAS.
xAI will swallow the digital world. Tesla and SpaceX will swallow the physical world.
Boring Company is having great success, expanding quickly, and reducing the cost of tunneling 100x fold. Boring Company will build the Hyperloop.
X will be the largest financial institution in the world. X will be one of the largest dating platforms. X will be the number one place for creators to make a living.
Starting DOGE and being more involved in government helps with planning for Mars.
My thoughts on what Elon means when he says we'll have Universal High Income (UHI): I believe Elon is saying super intelligent AI and robotics will produce essentially infinite labor and therefore infinite services and goods. Essentially, infinite labor -> infinite goods & services -> costs plummet -> makes everyone feel they have high income.
With Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, xAI, Boring Company, and the ventures he'll start in the future, Elon will create many many many billionaires.
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Sourced from Ryan Tanaka's public posts on X (@RyanTanaka). Each card is dated and links to the original tweet. Not investment advice. Last scanned August 12, 2026.
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