Investor Brief · 2026 H1

Robotaxi, in brief.

Driverless ride-hailing on camera-only FSD, undercutting Uber and Waymo on price.

Page 1 of 7 · The thesis

Robotaxi is Tesla's bet that removing the driver lets a shared electric fleet undercut Uber, Lyft, and Waymo on price while earning recurring revenue per autonomous mile.

Tesla Robotaxi already averaged $8.17 per Bay Area ride, less than half the $15.47 to $19.69 charged by Lyft, Uber, and Waymo.
The whole bet is a cost curve: Elon Musk targets about $0.20 per mile fully loaded at scale by 2030.
It is running unsupervised in three Texas cities, but the fleet is tiny and revenue is not yet broken out in filings.
Read it as a high-optionality, high-uncertainty growth driver, not a proven business line yet.

$8.17

Avg fare per ride

Tesla Robotaxi Bay Area average vs Lyft $15.47, Uber $17.47, Waymo $19.69 (Grokipedia, citing Obi analysis of 94,000+ requests)

Cities live (unsupervised)

Austin, Dallas, Houston running unsupervised; SF Bay Area supervised (Tesla Q1 2026 8-K)

~2x QoQ

Paid Robotaxi miles

Paid Robotaxi miles nearly doubled sequentially in Q1 2026 (Tesla Q1 2026 8-K)

1.28M

Active FSD subscriptions

Up 51% YoY, the recurring-software base under the network (Tesla Q1 2026 8-K)

<$30,000

Cybercab target price

Purpose-built two-seat unit, no wheel or pedals; pilot production at Giga Texas (Grokipedia; Tesla Q1 2026 8-K)

~$0.20/mi

Target operating cost

Fully loaded cost at scale by 2030, called 'probably true' by Elon Musk (Grokipedia, citing Elon Musk on X)

The snapshot above is the free preview. The full seven-page brief continues below.

The full brief

Read all seven pages

Page one is free. The next six go deeper: what it is, how the money works (with sourced data charts), the bull and bear cases, what to watch, and the bottom line.

2Driverless rides on camera-only softwareWhat it is
3The economics rest on cost per mileHow the money works
4Why the upside could be largeThe bull case
5Why it could disappointThe bear case
6The signposts that will settle itWhat to watch
7High optionality, high uncertaintyThe bottom line

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This is an educational brief, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures trace to primary filings, official statements, and Grokipedia; privately held valuations are labeled as reported or estimated.